In 2025, China's steel exports performed outstandingly, with the annual export volume reaching a new high. According to customs data, China exported 119.019 million tons of steel in 2025, an increase of 7.5% year-on-year; it imported 6.059 million tons of steel, a decrease of 11.1% year-on-year. In December alone, steel exports reached 11.301 million tons, an increase of 16.2% year-on-year and a 13.2%环比 recovery, setting a monthly record high; steel imports were 517，000 tons， a decrease of 16.7% year-on-year. Wang Guoqing， the director of the Lan Ge Steel Research Center， based on the current situation， believes that China's steel exports are facing significant pressure from all sides. Compared with the historical peak in December 2025， subsequent exports will show a phased pressure-reduction trend. 

Overseas supply constraints, sluggish global manufacturing recovery, escalating trade protectionism, policy adjustments to adapt to circumstances... Currently, China's steel exports are subject to multiple internal and external constraints. 

The increase in overseas supply has squeezed out the space for external demand. The global steel supply side has been continuously strengthening its efforts. According to the World Steel Association's statistics, in November 2025, the total steel output of 70 countries included in the statistics worldwide was 140.1 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%. Among them, the steel output in regions other than China showed an upward trend, reaching 70.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with the growth rate rising by 1.0 percentage point compared to the previous month. The continuous increase in overseas steel production will further squeeze out the external demand share of Chinese steel. 

The global manufacturing sector is experiencing sluggish recovery, and its support for external demand for steel is limited. The Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing in December 2025 was 49.5%, while the corresponding PMI released by JPMorgan Chase in the same period was 50.4%. Both indices dropped by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating that the external demand is relatively weak and is unlikely to provide a sustained strong boost to exports. From the domestic-related indicators, in December 2025, the new export orders index for China's manufacturing sector was 49.0%, although it rose for two consecutive months, it remained below the critical level and the impact on market demand will take time to manifest. 

The pressure brought about by trade frictions is continuously increasing. Since late November 2025, the number of trade remedy investigation cases targeting Chinese steel products worldwide has significantly risen. For instance, on November 25, 2025, Australia initiated an anti-dumping investigation against welded wire mesh sheets imported from China and Malaysia; on November 28, South Korea launched an anti-dumping investigation against galvanized cold-rolled steel from China; on December 11, the European Union initiated an anti-dumping investigation against silicon-manganese steel wires from China; on December 17, South Africa launched an anti-dumping investigation against colored coated plates from China... Moreover, the anti-dumping investigations initiated by some countries against Chinese steel products in the early stage have successively entered the ruling stage and implemented relevant measures, which will significantly restrict the export of relevant steel products from China. 

The index of industry export orders is also contracting. In December 2025, the new export order index of steel enterprises surveyed by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing' Steel Logistics Professional Committee was 41.1%, down by 6.1 percentage points compared to the previous month; the new export order index of steel circulation enterprises surveyed by the China Financial Association & Lan Ge Steel Network was 45.5%, down by 5.9 percentage points compared to the previous month. 

Wang Guoqing believes that the significant contraction of the export order index in the steel industry is mainly influenced by the new steel export license policy implemented since January 1, 2026. Moreover, on January 1, 2026, the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) officially came into effect, and industry enterprises need to simultaneously deal with multiple challenges such as new declaration procedures, compliance requirements, and carbon cost accounting. During the process of adapting to the new procedures and requirements, there may be delays in order processing and enterprises may adopt a wait-and-see attitude in the short term. It is expected that this will significantly restrict the subsequent export volume. 

The positive factor is that the price advantage of Chinese steel persists. Recently, the export quotations of China and other major steel-exporting countries have been raised simultaneously. The price competitiveness of Chinese steel exports still has a significant advantage. According to the monitoring data of the Langer Steel Research Center, as of January 14, 2026, the export quotation (FOB) of Chinese hot-rolled coil was $460 per ton, which was lower than that of India ($485 per ton), Japan ($490 per ton), and Turkey ($535 per ton), among other major competitors. The price advantage provided a fundamental support for exports. 

Industry insiders point out that the export transformation of steel enterprises has become a crucial part for achieving value growth. On one hand, since January 1, 2026, China has re-implemented export license management for some steel products, forcing enterprises to reduce the export of ordinary steel and enhance the added value of their products. On the other hand, the implementation of overseas anti-dumping arbitration and European carbon tariff policies in 2026 is expected to bring pressure on domestic steel exports to decrease. Under this background, for steel exports to achieve value-added, enterprises must carry out systematic upgrades in their strategies. They can combine their actual situations to increase the proportion of high-value-added product exports while doing a good job in risk assessment and market regulation, actively avoiding high-risk markets and paying attention to emerging and incremental markets, such as the "Belt and Road"共建 countries in the Middle East， Africa， Central Asia， Latin America， etc.， where infrastructure demand is strong.