In March 2025, China's steel exports still showed a year-on-year growth trend, while steel imports remained at a low level. As a result, China's steel foreign trade maintained a significant net export trend in March. Data calculated by the Langer Steel Research Center shows that in March, China's net steel exports reached 9.955 million tons, up 7.4% year-on-year. From January to March, China's net steel exports reached 25.879 million tons, up by 7.6% year-on-year.

At present, the price advantage of China's steel exports still exists. Overseas steel supply continued to decline year-on-year. Meanwhile, the global manufacturing index has declined, and the prosperity of external demand remains weak. The export order index of China's steel industry is operating in a contraction range. The trade conflicts faced by the steel industry have intensified, and the inhibitory effect on steel exports will gradually become apparent. However, in April, driven by the rush to boost exports, it is expected that steel exports will remain at a relatively high level and decline compared to the previous year's base (9.22 million tons), and may still maintain a growth rate year-on-year. The analysis of relevant influencing factors is as follows:

The price advantage of China's steel exports still exists

With the correction of China's export quotations, the current price advantage of China's steel exports still exists. According to the monitoring data of the Lange Steel Research Center, as of April 11, 2025, the export quotations (FOB) of hot-rolled coil from India, Turkey and the Commonwealth of Independent States were $565 / ton, $590 / ton and $485 / ton respectively, while that from China was $462 / ton. At present, the export quotations of hot-rolled coils from China are 103 US dollars per ton, 128 US dollars per ton and 23 US dollars per ton lower than those from India, Turkey and the Commonwealth of Independent States respectively

Global crude steel output continued to decline year-on-year in February 2025. In February 2025, the crude steel output of the 69 countries included in the World Steel Association's statistics was 144.7 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%. From the perspective of crude steel output outside China, the year-on-year decline trend continued. Monitoring data from the Lang Steel Research Center shows that in February, the output from other regions around the world outside China was 65.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, with the decline rate expanding by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month. Overseas supply continues to decline, and there is still room for the release of external demand for steel in our country.

The global manufacturing index showed a downward trend in March 2025. According to the release of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI in March 2025 was 49.6%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Jpmorgan Chase's global manufacturing PMI for March declined in the expansion zone to 50.3%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing PMI in the Americas dropped below 49%, down by more than 1 percentage point from the previous month, which was the main factor contributing to the decline in the global manufacturing PMI.

From the perspective of global economic evolution, the United States' imposition of tariffs makes trade frictions inevitable, which has a negative impact on both the United States and other countries around the world. In the short term, it will lead to a "lose-lose" situation of rising global trade costs and chaotic global supply chains. The data on China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) for March, released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics' Service Industry Survey Center, shows that the index of new export orders for China's manufacturing sector stood at 49% in March. Although it rose by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, it was still operating in a contraction zone, indicating that the prosperity of external demand remains weak.