The Worldsteel has lowered its short-term outlook for global steel demand in 2026 to 0.3%, at 1.72 billion tons, which is lower than the 1.3% increase predicted in October, to 1.77 billion tons. 

The World Steel Association stated that the latest forecast confirmed that after a long period of weakness since 2022, global steel demand will bottom out in 2025-26. However, it is expected that the ongoing wars in the Middle East will lead to a significant decline in steel demand in this region this year. 

This forecast is based on data up to mid-March and assumes that the conflict will be resolved by June. If the hostile situation persists beyond the second quarter, it may need to be significantly revised downward, especially in regions more vulnerable to energy price shocks. 

The association predicts that, supported by the continued growth in major developing markets led by India and the stable demand contraction in China next year, the growth rate will accelerate to 2.2% in 2027, and the demand is expected to reach 17.6 billion tons. 

As the real estate market adjustment approaches the bottom, infrastructure investment is gradually increasing. It is expected that China's steel demand will decline by 1.5% in 2026. It is predicted that the demand will remain basically stable by 2027. The World Steel Association also stated that in the coming years, the global trade environment will still pose a downward risk to the demand for China's manufacturing industry. 

Excluding China, the growth in demand for developing economies is expected to slow down to 2.5% by 2026. The main reason is that the Middle East is expected to experience a significant contraction, while the ASEAN region's growth will slow down after the inventory activities in 2025. It is projected that by 2027, economic growth will recover to 5.1%. This recovery will be driven by the sustained growth momentum of China and India, supplemented by the expected recovery in the Middle East. 

It is expected that India will remain the fastest-growing major steel market. Supported by infrastructure-driven construction, automotive demand and capital expenditure, the demand is projected to increase by 7.4% in 2026 and 9.2% in 2027. Driven by large-scale urbanization and infrastructure projects, the demand in Africa is expected to grow by 3.8% this year and 4.6% next year. 

In 2025, the demand growth of developed economies will be 0.2%, marking the end of a three-year decline. It is expected to increase by 1% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. In the European Union and the United Kingdom, supported by infrastructure and defense spending as well as the expected improvement in macroeconomic conditions, the demand is projected to increase by 1.3% in 2026 and 3% in 2027. 

With the support of private sector investment and continuous public infrastructure spending, the demand for steel in the United States is expected to increase by 1.7% in 2026 and by 2% in 2027. The World Steel Association stated that the residential construction industry is expected to recover, but high mortgage interest rates, affordability pressures, labor shortages and rising material costs may limit the pace of the rebound.