The Federal Reserve opened the interest rate cut cycle, the federal funds rate was reduced by 50 basis points to 4.75%-5.00%, and many places around the world set off a wave of interest rate cuts. 

In August, the manufacturing PMI fell further below the line of growth and contraction, and the manufacturing industry was in the stage of passive replenishment of inventory. On the supply side, the old national standard inventory of rebar has been digested, the output of sample steel mills has risen for four consecutive weeks, and the output of hot coil has declined. 

On the demand side, the real estate construction area in July and August was less than the same period last year, and the issuance of new special funds for infrastructure construction was 619.5 billion yuan in August. In terms of inventory, rebar inventory is low in nearly five years, and hot coil inventory has been digested. 

In the third quarter, steel prices fell continuously, the main factor is that the supply is loose. The active production reduction made the supply lower, the weekly output of the five major varieties of steel in the sample steel mill declined in the third quarter, and the profit rate of the steel mill was a new low in nearly five years. Table demand weakened, the third quarter five varieties of steel weekly average table demand decreased quarter-on-quarter, year-on-year. At the bottom of the construction demand, the real estate policy has limited boost to black, and the infrastructure has limited pull. 

Manufacturing supply and demand pressure, PMI continued to decline in August. Exports remained high, and China exported 9.495 million tons of steel in August, up 21.3% from the previous month. Total inventory remained low, as of September 20, the total inventory of five varieties fell 10.79% from the same period last year. 

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, if the steel mill cautiously resumed production, steel prices showed a weak operation, if the pace of resumption of production accelerated, steel prices or accelerated decline.