Since February 2025, the trend of stainless steel futures has been volatile and relatively strong, mainly influenced by positive macro factors and the disturbance of overseas nickel mine policies. In March, futures prices fluctuated frequently. According to market feedback, at the beginning of the month, due to the strong expectation of rising raw material costs in the market, the futures price of stainless steel was supported to some extent and rose. However, as time went on, market concerns over the slow recovery of downstream demand for stainless steel gradually intensified, suppressing the further rise of futures prices and presenting a range-bound fluctuation trend. As of mid-March, the price of the main stainless steel contract fluctuated within a certain range, and the market was in a rather intense battle between bulls and bears. The uncertainty of the macroeconomy and the changes in the supply and demand structure of industries have intensified the overall cautious attitude of the market.

According to Mysteel's statistics, the spot prices of stainless steel in March also showed a volatile pattern overall. At the beginning of the month, driven by the rising costs of steel mills and the futures market situation, the spot price rose to a certain extent. For instance, the spot price of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel has risen in some regions. However, as the downstream purchasing sentiment has not improved significantly, high-price spot transactions have been hindered. To boost transactions, traders saw a pullback in the spot prices of some specifications after the middle of the month. The spot prices of stainless steel vary in different regions and specifications. Generally speaking, the fluctuations in spot prices are closely related to the futures market and the supply and demand situation in the market. Downstream enterprises mostly make purchases based on their essential needs and are highly sensitive to prices. Once prices rise too fast, their willingness to purchase will decline, which in turn will affect the trend of spot prices.

According to Mysteel's statistics, as of March 20, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel 89 warehouse diameter in the mainstream market across the country was 1,121,521 tons, a decrease of 0.48% compared with the previous week. On March 6th, the total social inventory was 1.123 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.40%. Among them, the total inventory of cold-rolled stainless steel was 716,300 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.43%, while the total inventory of hot-rolled stainless steel was 406,600 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 3.46%. On March 13th, the total social inventory was 1.127 million tons, increasing by 0.36% week-on-week. The total inventory of cold-rolled stainless steel was 722,700 tons, rising by 0.89% week-on-week, while the total inventory of hot-rolled stainless steel was 404,300 tons, decreasing by 0.58% week-on-week. It can be seen from this that the national social inventory of stainless steel first decreased and then increased in March. The previous decline in inventory was mainly due to the normal arrival of goods in the market. The increase in steel mills' asking prices stimulated the downstream to purchase on demand in a phased manner, and the speed of resource digestion slightly accelerated. The subsequent increase in inventory was due to the fact that although there were transactions in the market, the overall recovery of demand was not strong enough, and the replenishment of new arrivals led to another increase in inventory. However, the overall inventory level has been adjusted to a certain extent compared with the previous high.

In conclusion, the stainless steel market in March 2025 presented a mixed pattern of bulls and bears. The futures market and spot prices fluctuate under the influence of macro factors, raw material costs and supply and demand relationships. Although there are fluctuations in social inventories, they remain at a relatively high level overall. The increase in raw material prices has raised production costs, but the weakness in downstream demand has led to poor cost transmission. The output of crude steel remained at a relatively high level, further exacerbating the imbalance between supply and demand in the market. In the short term, the stainless steel market will still face problems such as price fluctuations, inventory digestion and cost pressure. If the downstream demand can be effectively improved in the future, the market supply and demand structure is expected to be optimized, and the price of stainless steel may receive more strong support. Conversely, in the current situation where supply is relatively loose and demand is insufficient, the stainless steel market may continue to show a volatile and weak trend.