In mid-March, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 16.91 million tons

In mid-March 2025, the steel inventory of key statistics steel enterprises was 16.91 million tons, an increase of 660,000 tons compared with the previous ten days, representing a growth of 4.1%. It increased by 4.54 million tons compared with the beginning of the year, growing by 36.7%. It increased by 390,000 tons compared with the same period last month, representing a growth of 2.4%. Compared with Tongdian last year, it decreased by 2.62 million tons, a decline of 13.4%; compared with the same period of the previous year, it decreased by 2.05 million tons, a decline of 10.8%.

Global crude steel output in February decreased by 3.4% year-on-year

According to statistics from the World Steel Association, in February 2025, the crude steel output of 69 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association's statistics was 144.7 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%.

The average daily output of molten iron from 201 production enterprises across the country has increased

On March 26, 2025, according to Lange's research, the average daily output of molten iron from 201 production enterprises across the country was 2.2985 million tons, an increase of 26,500 tons compared with the previous week and an overall increase of 58,500 tons compared with the previous month. The average daily output of molten iron in January 2025 was 2.2603 million tons, in February 2025 was 2.2469 million tons, and in March 2025 was 2.2717 million tons.

Analysis of Steel Trends

Building materials: Prices remained stable yesterday

The recovery of downstream demand is not as good as in previous years. The production cuts by steel mills in Xinjiang mainly affect the local area. Attention should be paid to steel mills in other regions. If production cuts occur, it will be beneficial to steel prices. There is pressure for a sustained upward trend in the short term. It is expected that the spot prices of building materials will remain stable with a slight weakness today.

Sheet metal: The price remained stable yesterday

Some steel mills in certain regions have issued documents on reducing crude steel inventories, which has boosted market confidence. As a result, short sellers on the market have sought refuge, leading to a reduction in steel inventories and an upward trend. However, it is still treated as a range-bound rebound, but there is pressure from above, causing a brief pullback. It is expected that the spot price of sheet materials will remain stable with a slight decline today.

Steel strip: Prices fluctuated yesterday

Based on the current actual situation, cost support has strengthened somewhat, and the recovery of terminal demand has begun to accelerate. However, the actual market is somewhat differentiated, and the transaction situation is average. It is expected that the spot price of steel strips will remain stable with a slight decline today.

Pipe material: The price remained stable with a slight decline yesterday

From the perspective of the fundamental situation, at present, manufacturers are mainly selling off goods. There is an expectation of a recovery in the overall demand for steel, but the demand start is still relatively slow. After a continuous rise, the market sentiment has improved somewhat. With the increase in raw material prices and the strengthening of cost support, merchants are mainly focusing on ensuring transactions. It is expected that the spot price of pipes will remain stable with a slight weakness today.

Analysis of Raw Material Trends

Double Coke: The price remained stable yesterday

The inventory of coke by coking enterprises remains stable at a relatively high level. The futures market has been fluctuating. Recently, the market has been in a wait-and-see mood and purchasing has been cautious. The supply and demand fundamentals continue to improve. Coking coal is expected to stop falling and stabilize, but the overall rebound in the short term is not significant. It is expected that the price of dual-lens reflex lenses will remain stable today.

Steel billet: The price remained stable yesterday

The expectation of a weak US economy has strengthened, and there is a risk of a downward cut in interest rates as the Federal Reserve issued a pro-Y statement. The market is concerned that the reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd will exceed expectations. The pressure remains and the rebound is limited. It is expected that the price of steel billets will remain stable with a slight weakness today.

Iron ore: The price was relatively strong yesterday

On the demand side, molten iron increased by 56,700 tons last week. Although there is an expectation of a short-term peak, the steel mills' essential purchases still provide some support for the iron ore price. However, the market response is limited. It is expected that the iron ore price will slightly decline today.

Scrap steel: The price remained stable and rose yesterday

Following production restrictions in Xinjiang and Sichuan, production haltions have occurred in Shandong, raising expectations of a tightening in the supply of finished materials and boosting sentiment. It is expected that the spot price of scrap steel will remain stable and rise slightly today.

Today's steel price forecast

It was obvious from the market yesterday that the upward momentum was running low, with frequent fluctuations. The spot price followed suit and mostly traded at a lower price. At present, steel production has declined, blast furnace building materials have slightly reduced production, steel inventories have continued to fall, the pace of inventory reduction has slowed down, and steel demand has dropped. The overall data is neutral and weak, providing insufficient support for steel prices. Technically, it is still in an upward structure. Adjustments are a normal pace. The main focus will be on gradually realizing profits after the increase. In the future, the improvement in demand and the information on production cuts by steel mills in major production areas are both quite important.