In March, influenced by factors such as increased uncertainty in the external environment, the implementation of macro policies at the Two Sessions, and the traditional transition between peak and off-peak seasons, the domestic steel market witnessed a volatile and declining trend. However, driven by the "export rush" factor, the capacity release of steel mills has significantly strengthened. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in March 2025, China's crude steel output was 92.84 million tons, increasing by 4.6% year-on-year, turning from a year-on-year decline to an increase. The output of pig iron was 75.29 million tons, increasing by 3.1% year-on-year, turning from decline to increase year-on-year. Steel output reached 134.42 million tons, increasing by 8.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year growth rate expanding by 3.6 percentage points. On a cumulative basis, from January to March 2025, China's crude steel output was 259.33 million tons, increasing by 0.6% year-on-year. The output of pig iron was 216.28 million tons, increasing by 0.8% year-on-year. Steel output reached 358.74 million tons, increasing by 6.1% year-on-year.

From the perspective of the average daily output of pig iron, crude steel and steel products across the country on a monthly basis, the daily output of crude steel and pig iron continued to rise on a month-on-month basis in March 2025, while the daily output of steel products turned from a decline to an increase on a month-on-month basis. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in March 2025, the average daily output of crude steel across the country was 2.995 million tons, rising by 6.2% month-on-month, with the month-on-month growth rate narrowing by 8.8 percentage points. The average daily output of pig iron was 2.429 million tons, rising by 1.8% month-on-month, with the month-on-month growth rate narrowing by 9.1 percentage points. The average daily output of steel was 4.336 million tons, rising by 14.2% compared with the previous period, turning from a decline to an increase.

From the monthly data of the average daily output of key large and medium-sized steel enterprises, it can be seen that the capacity release intensity of large and medium-sized steel production enterprises has weakened to some extent. According to the statistics of the China Iron and Steel Association, in March 2025, the daily output of pig iron by key large and medium-sized steel enterprises was 1.897 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.8%, turning from an increase to a decrease month-on-month, and a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. The daily output of crude steel was 2.141 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.8%, turning from an increase to a decrease month-on-month, and a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. The daily output of steel was 2.093 million tons, a 0.2% decrease from the previous month. The month-on-month output turned from an increase to a decrease, and it rose by 4.5% year-on-year. The daily output of crude steel in April may "peak". In April, due to the combined impact of the intensification of the tariff war between China and the United States, the expectation of domestic incremental policies, the weakening of cost support, and the "rush effect", the production enthusiasm of steel enterprises remained strong. Judging from the current changes in blast furnace operating rates, the production release intensity of steel enterprises shows a fluctuating upward trend. According to the research data from Lang Steel Network, the average operating rate of blast furnaces in 100 small and medium-sized steel enterprises across the country in the first three weeks of April 2025 was 77.4%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points compared with March. However, the average daily output of molten iron from 201 production enterprises across the country was 2.322 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons compared with the average monthly output in March.