In February, the export prices of various steel varieties fluctuated but stabilized

In February 2025, the export prices of steel from China showed a trend of fluctuating and stabilizing. Driven by policy expectations and the news of crude steel production cuts boosting market confidence, coupled with the marginal support for export prices from domestic inventory replenishment demand after the holiday, the export prices of major varieties rose slightly month-on-month. By variety: The average monthly FOB price of hot-rolled coil and sheet slightly dropped by $1 per ton to $472 per ton. Cold-rolled coil and sheet ($550 per ton), hot-dip galvanized coil ($575 per ton), rebar ($477 per ton), and wire rod ($466 per ton) recorded month-on-month increases of $2, $1, $3, and $3 per ton respectively. The price of medium and heavy plates remained unchanged at $490 per ton. According to the latest data from Mysteel, as of March 24th, the offshore prices of major steel varieties are as follows: hot-rolled sheet and coil at $467 per ton, cold-rolled sheet and coil at $527 per ton, hot-dip galvanized coil at $556 per ton, medium and heavy plate at $475 per ton, rebar at $460 per ton, and wire rod at $471 per ton. (Note: Hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil, hot-dip galvanized coil and medium and heavy plates are selected from Tianjin Port, while rebar and wire rods are selected from Zhangjiagang.)

Steel exports declined month-on-month but continued to grow year-on-year

In February 2025, the export volume of steel was 8.04 million tons, a decrease of 10.07% month-on-month and an increase of 12.1% year-on-year. From January to February, the cumulative export volume reached 16.97 million tons, increasing by 6.7% year-on-year. In February 2025, the import volume of steel was 550,000 tons, an increase of 10.00% month-on-month and 4.7% year-on-year. From January to February, the cumulative imports reached 1.05 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%. Although steel exports declined month-on-month in February 2025, mainly due to the slowdown in production and shipment during the Spring Festival holiday, the cumulative exports from January to February increased year-on-year, reflecting the structural advantages of China's steel exports in the global industrial chain.

Third, the export volume of major steel varieties mostly decreased compared with the previous period

In February, the export volume of finished steel products in our country generally decreased. From the perspective of different varieties, steel billets, bar and wire rods, and hot-rolled products rebounded significantly on a month-on-month basis, while high value-added categories such as coated plates and coated plates, as well as traditional categories like pipes, dropped sharply on a month-on-month basis, intensifying structural differentiation. Hot-rolled exports grew against the trend, increasing by 23.2% month-on-month. The export volume reached 1.975 million tons, making it the steel variety with the largest export volume in that month. Bar and wire rods have performed strongly, and they are the only two varieties among the finished products that have seen a significant increase in proportion to hot-rolled ones. Although the export of high value-added products such as coated steel sheets, coated steel sheets (strips), and electrical steel sheets (strips) decreased compared with January, the cumulative year-on-year increase demonstrated a certain degree of resilience, and the long-term demand remains positive. Hot rolling includes hot-rolled thin plates, hot-rolled thin and wide steel strips, hot-rolled narrow steel strips and medium-thick and wide steel strips. Cold rolling includes cold-rolled thin plates, cold-rolled thin and wide steel strips and cold-rolled narrow steel strips.

Vietnam, South Korea and the United Arab Emirates are the top three countries for China's steel exports

In February, the top three destinations for China's steel exports were Vietnam, South Korea and the United Arab Emirates. The export volume of the top ten destinations mostly decreased compared with the previous month. The Southeast Asian market is highly differentiated. Vietnam is recovering, while Thailand is experiencing a pullback after a high base in January. The resilience of the Middle East market is evident, and the long-term demand in emerging markets such as Pakistan and Brazil is promising. The short-term fluctuations have been sharp, mainly due to the high base in January and the forward shift of orders during the Spring Festival holiday. In the long term, the focus of exports is shifting along the Belt and Road Initiative.

Summary

In February 2025, due to the seasonal factor of the Spring Festival holiday, the short-term export momentum weakened somewhat, but the overall export resilience remained. According to the data from the Steel Logistics Professional Committee of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the new export order index of steel enterprises in February was 43.6%, rising by 4.3 percentage points month-on-month. However, it was still in the contraction range below the boom-bust line, indicating that the recovery momentum of international market demand was relatively weak. In addition, the global trade environment tightened in February. Countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Colombia, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Africa, and Vietnam imposed trade restrictions on Chinese steel products, which may exert continuous pressure on subsequent exports. In addition, given that the export base in March 2024 has climbed to a high level of 9.89 million tons, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of steel exports in March 2025 May face downward pressure.