The initial price fluctuations in the steel market in 2025 have drawn widespread attention from the market. Judging from the market reactions in certain periods, prices have indeed shown a downward trend. Specifically, on January 7, 2025, according to the statistics of the Information Research Institute of China Steel Network, 10 steel mills chose to lower their ex-factory prices, and at the same time, the price of scrap steel also dropped significantly. By February 5th, the steel market showed a trend of opening high but closing low, with a decline of nearly 100 points. This situation has drawn close attention from relevant people.

However, from an overall perspective, the steel market trend after the Spring Festival in 2025 showed a pattern of more gains than losses. Before the Spring Festival, driven by the favorable macro sentiment, the steel market showed a slightly warm spring trend. However, after the Spring Festival, the market trend will face more uncertainties.

The steel price has shown such a complex situation at the beginning of the year, and the reasons mainly come from multiple aspects. Firstly, from the demand side, as the Spring Festival approaches, industries such as construction gradually enter the off-season, and terminal demand has weakened somewhat. Secondly, on the supply side, although the increase in blast furnace maintenance has restricted the supply of molten iron, in the context of weak demand, this has instead exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand in the market. In addition, the intensification of global trade protectionism, the determination and enforcement of overseas tariffs have also imposed considerable constraints on China's steel exports. Meanwhile, the decline in the market expectation index and the cautious attitude of investors and merchants towards the market have also affected steel prices to a certain extent.

Looking ahead, it is expected that the national average price of steel will continue to show a slight downward trend in 2025, dropping by approximately 3% compared with 2024. According to the annual report analysis of Jiantou, in 2025, steel prices will fluctuate repeatedly between medium and long-term overcapacity and the drive of domestic demand policies, presenting a wide range of fluctuations. Overall, although the initial performance of steel prices has been complex at present, there are still many uncertainties in the subsequent trend. It is necessary to closely monitor multiple factors such as changes in market supply and demand, adjustments in macro policies, and the international economic situation.